Venezuela’s regime is against the ropes

(Photo: Ariana Cubillos AP)

Based on his past behavior, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is likely to try several dirty tricks — including buying off legislators and using the judiciary to curtail legislative powers — to weaken the opposition supermajority in the newly elected National Assembly. But there are three major reasons why he is not likely to succeed.

First, the opposition coalition’s victory was so overwhelming that Maduro would face a social explosion if he failed to recognize the new National Assembly’s powers.

Despite the most undemocratic election rules in Latin America with the exception of Cuba’s, Venezuela’s opposition won a two-thirds majority of 112 seats in the 167-seat National Assembly, which could allow it to call a national referendum that could lead to Maduro’s ouster.

Ironically, the Chavista government fell into its own trap: It had written the election rules in such a way that small traditionally pro-government states elected more legislators than hugely populated anti-government states. Thanks to this lopsided representation system, the Chavista government had been able to win a majority in the National Assembly despite losing the popular vote in 2010.

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