Prediction of Trump’s impeachment is premature — but is it crazy?

(Photo: Al Diaz – Miami Herald)

Allan Lichtman, the American University star professor who predicted — contrary to virtually all polls — that President-elect Donald Trump would win this year’s elections, is now making another daring forecast: that Trump will be impeached.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted almost every election since 1984, says that he based his prediction that Trump would win on a 13-question statistical method. The questions deal with “big picture” issues, such as how the economy is doing, and don’t even consider the polls. The polls are just “snapshots” of reality at a given moment, which are useless to predict the result on Election Day, he says.

Curious about his daring forecasts, I interviewed him about how he foresees a Trump presidency. Lichtman told me that, unlike his prediction of Trump’s victory, which was based on a statistical analysis, his forecast about an impeachment “is just based on my gut.” But he immediately added that there are two reasons why the idea of an impeachment is not too far-fetched.

“No. 1, Trump has played fast and loose with the law all of his life, ” Lichtman said. He cited Trump’s dubious use of his charity to buy things for himself and to settle business debts, his companies’ exploratory business moves in Cuba in possible violation of the U.S. embargo, the trial against Trump University, the more than a dozen women who have said they were sexually assaulted by Trump, and the fact that his children are likely to continue managing his business empire, which could lead to all kinds of conflicts of interests.

To continue reading this article click The Miami Herald