Colombia peace deal won’t solve country’s key problem — an outdated economy

(Photo: Felipe Caicedo – AP)

During an interview with President Juan Manuel Santos in Colombia to discuss the Oct. 2 referendum on the peace deal with the FARC guerrillas to end the country’s five-decade-old armed conflict, I took away four conclusions — including one that almost nobody in Colombia is talking about.

First, the peace agreement is neither the turning point in Colombia’s history that will lead to an era of prosperity nor a model to solve armed conflicts worldwide, as Santos says. It’s also not a catastrophic surrender to the rebels that will turn Colombia into a Venezuelan-styled radical socialist country, as critics say.

Rather, it will be a piece of paper signed Sept. 26 in this coastal city amid much pomp, which will result in the demilitarization of many — but not all — of the estimated 7, 000 FARC guerrillas. Many FARC rebels will join the drug trafficking cartels, or change their uniforms for those of the ELN or other guerrilla groups.

Santos rejects the notion that many FARC members will join the drug cartels. He told me that, on the contrary, “now we can stop being the first world exporter of cocaine because one of the commitments they [the FARC] have made is to collaborate with the state to replace illegal crops with legal ones.” Santos’ critics say that is wishful thinking, and I agree.

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